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He killed his wife with math. The sequel? Helping his buddy do the same.
TMDB
40
IMDb
57
Watch(FR)

The Probability Factor (1976)

morally bankruptFrench deadpandomestic noir comedy

Overview

ComedyCrime

Fred works for an insurance company as a computer engineer. He is bored with enduring the trials of his shrewish wife, so, after using actuarial tables to calculate the most common means of death, he cleverly prepares the family bathroom and brings about her demise. For a while he is content with his new freedom, but then he recognizes that a friend is in a similar situation.

Flag of FRFRFlag of ITITFrench
Content warning
marital suffocationmale friendship as conspiracybureaucracy of murderliberation through transgression

Standout Aspects

Acting

Trintignant's dead-eyed satisfaction is terrifyingly funny

Writing

Actuarial tables as murder weapon—sickeningly clever

Direction

Pirès treats homicide with casual lunch-break energy

Best for:Solo: Late night with wine and zero judgment·Friends: Bonding over shared misanthropy·Rewatch: Spotting every coldly calculated detail
Heads up:Disturbing: Wife murder played for laughs, repeatedly
Gérard Pirès

Director

Gérard Pirès

ReleasedApr 7, 1976
Runtime1h 24m
StatusReleased

Vibe

Pacesteady
Intensitymedium
Tonedark
Feellight
Lira Films
Produzioni Atlas Consorziate

Top Cast

Jean-Louis Trintignant

Jean-Louis Trintignant

Fred Malone

Mireille Darc

Mireille Darc

Charlotte

Bernadette Lafont

Bernadette Lafont

Louise Delouette

Lea Massari

Lea Massari

Gloria

Claude Piéplu

Claude Piéplu

Piette Tournier

Claudia Marsani

Claudia Marsani

Virginia

Bernard Fresson

Bernard Fresson

Delouette

Jean Abeillé

Jean Abeillé

Anémone

Anémone

Secretary

Albert Augier

Albert Augier

Michel Blanc

Michel Blanc

Choukroun

Michel Delahaye

Michel Delahaye

Member of the board of directors

Jean-Yves Gautier

Jean-Yves Gautier

Ask about The Probability Factor

Opens AI chat

Deep Dive

Trivia, insights & behind the scenes

Cultural

This gem captures 1970s French cinema's obsession with bourgeois malaise and casual amorality—think Chabrol without the guilt.

Trivia

Mireille Darc, playing the victim, was a massive star; her willingness to die horribly for 20 minutes of screen time says everything about the script's pull.

Gallery

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